On July 1, as most parts of the country remain under heat wave advisories, a fountain operates in front of the “Burning Earth” sculpture at the Daegu Citizen Safety Theme Park in Dong-gu, Daegu. The city recorded an average daily temperature of 30.7°C the previous day — the hottest June day since weather observations began there in January 1907. (Photo: Yonhap)
New climate projections highlight urgent need for emissions reduction under President Lee’s administration as global temperatures rise under Trump-era climate diplomacy gap
SEOUL, August 4 (Korea Bizwire) — South Korea could face a dramatic surge in extreme heat events unless global carbon emissions are curbed, with so-called “compound extreme heat days” projected to increase up to 66-fold by the end of the century, according to new forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration on Saturday.
The term refers to days when a heat wave (daily high of 33°C or above) and a tropical night (overnight low of 25°C or above) occur consecutively, followed by another day of extreme daytime heat. Currently, South Korea averages fewer than one such day annually (0.85 days between 2000 and 2019).
Under the worst-case climate trajectory, known as the SSP5-8.5 scenario — which assumes high fossil fuel usage and rapid industrial development — that number is expected to rise to 5.5 days per year by the 2030s, 27.3 days by the 2060s, and a staggering 56.2 days by the 2090s. In Seoul alone, the number could exceed 84 days annually by century’s end.
Even the region with the smallest projected increase — Gangwon Province — could see over 41 compound heat days by the 2090s, indicating that persistent daytime and nighttime heat could stretch well over a month.
On July 24, as midday temperatures in Seoul soared to 34°C, a resident in Seoul Station’s jjokbangchon (shantytown) endures the heat in a room without air conditioning. Captured with a thermal imaging camera, the image shows hotter areas in red and cooler areas in blue. (Yonhap)
By contrast, in the low-carbon SSP1-2.6 scenario — which assumes aggressive climate action, widespread renewable energy adoption, and sustainable economic growth — the increase in extreme heat days is far more modest: peaking at 7.9 days in the 2060s before declining to 6.5 by the 2090s.
These climate scenarios are part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment framework, which includes a spectrum from high-emission (SSP5-8.5) to low-emission (SSP1-2.6) pathways. A mid-range scenario (SSP2-4.5), reflecting moderate progress on both carbon reductions and socioeconomic development, projects 22.1 extreme heat days annually by the 2090s.
The meteorological agency also reported that days combining high temperature and heavy precipitation — defined as those ranking in the top 20% for both daily temperature and rainfall — will increase with rising emissions. Currently at 8.3 days annually, these events could reach nearly 18 days under the high-emissions scenario by the 2090s.
President Lee Jae-myung’s administration has placed renewed emphasis on climate resilience and emissions accountability, amid a shifting global climate landscape under the Trump administration, which has taken a more industry-focused approach to international environmental policy.
South Korean authorities underscored that aggressive carbon reductions are not just environmentally necessary but vital for public health and economic stability, as the country braces for longer, more dangerous summers.
Lina Jang (linajang@koreabizwire.com)
