This image captured from the Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security of Ukraine shows soldiers appearing to be North Koreans at a military base in Russia. (Yonhap)
SEOUL, Nov. 6 (Korea Bizwire) – The front-line deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine would pose significant risks that extend beyond the battlefield to impact the security environment on the Korean Peninsula, also marking a significant development since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, analysts said.
Concerns of North Korean soldiers participating in the Russia-Ukraine war in recent weeks were confirmed after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country’s forces had engaged in their first battles with North Korean troops.
“The first battles with North Korean soldiers open a new page of instability in the world,” Zelenskyy said in a video address on Tuesday.
Hours earlier, South Korea said more than 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, with a “considerable” number of them dispatched to front-line areas, including Russia’s western border region of Kursk.
Analysts say the current number of North Korean troops could help Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immediate efforts to gain ground in Kursk, where a major Ukrainian offensive took place in August.
“Putin may perceive that the addition of the North Korean combat personnel may make it possible for his military to accomplish a tactical breakthrough against Ukraine’s forces in the Kursk region,” Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp., said.
This photo, carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on June 19, 2024, shows the North’s leader Kim Jong-un (R) greeting Russian President Vladimir Putin, who arrived in Pyongyang for a state visit. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
North Korean boots on the ground, however, carry broader security implications as they mark a shift from what has been a war between Ukrainian and Russian troops.
Last week, Mark Rutte, the head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), said North Korea’s troop deployment represents a “significant escalation” and a “dangerous expansion” of the war.
Choi Yong-hwan, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, described the deployment of North Korean troops as marking a transformation of the conflict into an “international war.”
“North Korean troops’ participation in the war will become a justification for Zelenskyy’s requests to attack Russia’s mainland, while calls for South Korea’s support for Ukraine will increase,” he wrote in a recent report.
The troop dispatch itself might not have a big impact on the ground, Choi said, but it will likely lead to changes in international relations.
The development has raised concerns over its impact on the security environment on the Korean Peninsula as ties between Moscow and Pyongyang appear to only grow stronger — underpinned by their “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty signed in June.
“Pyongyang’s illegal military cooperation with Moscow may not have immediate physical effects on the Korean Peninsula, but it further escalates tensions, damages prospects for diplomacy, and yields financial and technological benefits for the Kim regime,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said.
This image, captured from video footage provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Oct. 15, 2024, shows North Korea blowing up a section of the Donghae Line along the east coast. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
South Korea has increasingly voiced concerns over the North’s troop deployment, vowing “phased” steps in response to the level of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
Throughout the war, Seoul has only directly sent humanitarian aid and financial assistance to Kyiv, apparently mindful of its ties with Russia, while cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang has only deepened.
“Seoul’s self-restraint in supplying weapons for Ukraine’s defense has bought it little to no reciprocity from North Korea or Russia,” Easley said.
(Yonhap)
