The National Assembly building in western Seoul (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
SEOUL, Feb. 20 (Korea Bizwire) — With just 50 days before the April 10 parliamentary elections, political parties have shifted into full-fledged election mode by nominating candidates for key constituencies, as observers anticipate a tightly contested race with variables in play.
The quadrennial election is set to select a new 300-member National Assembly, with this year’s poll holding particular significance as it serves as a political litmus test for President Yoon Suk Yeol’s administration, now entering its third year of a five-year term.
The results will also serve as a public evaluation of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which secured a landslide victory in the previous 2020 general elections by sweeping 180 out of the 300 seats.
The ruling People Power Party (PPP) is rallying local residents to vote for its candidates, calling for the ouster of opposition lawmakers with backgrounds as pro-democracy student activists during past authoritarian regimes.
PPP leader Han Dong-hoon is leading the campaign against politicians belonging to what is dubbed the “86 generation” that refers to activists who went to college in the 1980s after being born in the 1960s, saying they have turned into a political cartel enjoying undue privileges for decades.
The DP, which currently holds a controlling majority with 168 seats out of a total of 298, is spearheading a campaign to pass a stern judgment on Yoon’s handling of state affairs in an effort to retain its parliamentary dominance.
The DP has escalated its critique against the PPP and the Yoon government for mismanaging the economy and livelihood issues, while shedding light on scandals involving first lady Kim Keon Hee, including allegations she received a luxury bag as a gift in 2022.
Recent public surveys largely indicate a challenging path for the PPP and Yoon, especially following allegations related to the Christian Dior bag.
Han Dong-hoon (R), interim chief of the ruling People Power Party, speaks during a party meeting at the National Assembly on Feb. 19, 2024. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
According to a survey jointly conducted by Yonhap News Agency and Yonhap News TV earlier this month, Yoon’s approval rating slipped to 34 percent from the previous month. The survey also projected that the DP and PPP would secure 33 percent and 35 percent of the vote, respectively, if the parliamentary elections were held tomorrow. The results, however, were within the margin of error.
Observers unanimously agree that it will be crucial for both parties to nominate suitable candidates in key districts, such as excluding unpopular sitting lawmakers from nominations or fielding high-profile figures for highly competitive constituencies.
Attention is also on how these candidates can garner support from swing voters in competitive constituencies and how party leadership can mitigate potential conflicts between sitting lawmakers and their rivals during the nomination process.
“In the process of candidate nomination, it is inevitable to encounter some noise. However, minimizing that noise will be the most important thing,” professor Shin Yul of Myungji University told Yonhap News Agency.
The PPP has completed its candidate interviews and so far nominated 89 people, with only 34 being sitting lawmakers, an indication that the PPP is trying to replace old faces with new ones as part of reform efforts.
That commitment pales, however, in the Yeongnam region in the country’s southeast, which is the main stronghold of the ruling party, because sitting lawmakers received 18 out of 21 nominations in the region.
Noteworthy among the nominees is Won Hee-ryong, a former land minister, who is forecast to vie against DP leader Lee Jae-myung in the Gyeyang district of the western port city of Incheon, a traditional liberal opposition stronghold.
The DP’s candidate nominations are also under way, with Chairman Lee indicating his commitment to nominate more fresh faces over political heavyweights.
“New wine needs new bottles. We need to move towards the future,” Lee said in a Facebook post last week.
However, some members have claimed the party primaries are unfair, accusing Lee of favoring those loyal to him, as the party is expected to soon announce a list of incumbent lawmakers to be excluded from nominations.
Democratic Party Chairman Lee Jae-myung speaks during a meeting of the party’s Supreme Council at the National Assembly in Seoul on Feb. 19, 2024. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
An internal rift not only heightened tensions among members but also adversely impacted public opinion.
The PPP’s support rate surpassed the DP by 7.1 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error of 6.2 percentage points, according to a survey by the Korea Society Opinion Institute on Sunday.
The pollster attributed the results to a positive assessment of Han, particularly regarding the party’s candidate nomination process, contrasting with the DP, where conflicts arise between those aligned with former President Moon Jae-in and those in the pro-Lee faction.
Another variable in the April elections is the emergence of new parties striving to position themselves as the third-largest party united under the so-called big tent.
On Jan. 20, two splinter parties from the DP and one splinter party each from the PPP and the minor Justice Party, as well as independent lawmaker Yang Hyang-ja’s Hope of Korea party, united under the New Reform Party (NRP).
Led by former leaders of the ruling and opposition parties, Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yon, the NRP aims to secure a minimum of 30 seats. So far, five incumbent lawmakers have joined the party, but more could follow suit after the DP announces party nominations this week.
Lee Nak-yon (L) and Lee Jun-seok, co-leaders of the newly launched New Reform Party, shake hands during a meeting of the party’s Supreme Council at the National Assembly in Seoul on Feb. 19, 2024. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
The three-way race would be the first one since the general elections in 2016, when Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo’s People’s Party won 38 out of the 300 seats up for grabs.
Further complicating matters are the new parties envisioned by embattled former DP leader Song Young-gil and convicted former Justice Minister Cho Kuk. Cho had hinted at the possibility of aligning with the DP’s satellite party in proportional representative seats.
The developments are expected to add another layer of complexity to the upcoming parliamentary elections by diversifying voters’ options and potentially reshaping the dynamics between parties.
“The NRP is forecast to take away the DP’s votes, and Cho Kuk’s new party could even place the DP in a more difficult position,” said Lee Jong-hoon, a political analyst.
Candidate registration will take place over two days starting March 21, with official campaigning commencing on March 28. Overseas voting is scheduled from March 27 to April 1, with early voting set for two days, starting April 5.
The National Assembly will consist of 243 directly contested seats and 57 proportional representation seats allocated to parties based on the total number of votes they receive.
(Yonhap)
