South Korea’s Surprise Baby Bump Signals a Pause in Its Demographic Decline | Be Korea-savvy

South Korea’s Surprise Baby Bump Signals a Pause in Its Demographic Decline


This photo shows newborns at a hospital. (Yonhap)

This photo shows newborns at a hospital. (Yonhap)

SEOUL, Nov. 26 (Korea Bizwire) — South Korea’s birth figures ticked upward again in September, marking the fifteenth straight month of increase—a rare run of positive news for a country long synonymous with demographic freefall.

According to government data released Wednesday, 22,369 babies were born in September, an 8.6-percent rise from a year earlier and the highest tally for the month since 2020.

For a nation accustomed to watching its birthrate sink to new record lows each year, even modest growth carries outsized significance.

Between January and September, 191,040 children were born—more than 12,000 above the same period in 2024, the largest year-over-year jump for the first nine months of the year since 2007. If the trend holds, total births in 2025 could surpass last year’s figure of 238,317.

The government attributes the shift to a confluence of factors: a sustained rise in marriages, incremental policy support for new parents, and a temporary bump in the number of women entering their early thirties—the demographic cohort most likely to give birth.

In a society where births outside marriage remain uncommon, the connection between matrimony and maternity remains unusually direct. Marriages surged 20.1 percent in September, extending an 18-month streak of increases and setting a new high for any September on record.

But even with the uptick, South Korea’s fertility rate remains far below the level needed to sustain its population. The total fertility rate in September crept up only slightly, to 0.85 children per woman—still the lowest among OECD countries and well under the replacement level of 2.1.

The broader demographic picture continues to darken. While births rose and marriages climbed, deaths still outnumbered births: 28,101 people died in September, producing a natural population decline of 5,732. Divorces also edged higher, rising 5.7 percent from a year earlier.

The slow reversal in birth trends may signal a pause in the country’s long demographic slide—but hardly a turnaround. For now, it is a fragile moment of statistical relief in a nation still grappling with the profound economic and social questions posed by its aging and shrinking society.

Lina Jang (linajang@koreabizwire.com)

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