U.S. Think Tank Highlights South Korea’s Reluctance to Confront China but Calls Its Chip Strength Key to Alliance

WASHINGTON, Oct. 9 (Korea Bizwire) – A leading Washington think tank has warned that South Korea’s reluctance to challenge China militarily or economically could complicate U.S. strategy in Asia, even as it praised Seoul’s technological prowess as vital to the allies’ shared interests in an era of intensifying competition with Beijing.

In a report released Wednesday titled “Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace assessed the value and risks of Washington’s partnerships with seven key allies — South Korea, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, France, Germany, and Britain.

The study evaluated each alliance across eight areas central to U.S.-China rivalry, including deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, control of sensitive technologies, access to semiconductors and critical minerals, and cooperation in sustaining a U.S.-led global order.

The report described South Korea as “reluctant to use its economic and military power to counter China” and “a substantial military burden and risk to the U.S.” Yet it also noted that Seoul’s strengths in chip manufacturing and nonmilitary technologies “help strengthen the case for the alliance.”

While Japan was portrayed as a model ally capable of advancing U.S. aims across nearly all areas with low risk of entanglement, South Korea was said to require a “major investment of U.S. military power.” The asymmetry, the report argued, leaves Washington vulnerable to being drawn into conflict on the Korean Peninsula — and potentially into confrontation with China.

“The alliance could lead to war with North Korea — and by extension China,” the report said, noting that Seoul’s dependence on U.S. defense guarantees has grown even as it contributes “only a limited amount” to broader regional security goals.

Carnegie analysts emphasized that the U.S. commitment to defend South Korea, enshrined in the 1953 mutual defense treaty, should not itself be considered “entanglement.” Still, they warned that such a commitment carries “considerable cost and risk,” which have only increased as Pyongyang has developed nuclear weapons and advanced missile systems.

“A war on the Korean Peninsula,” the report cautioned, “could involve direct or indirect conflict with China, strikes on Japan, potential use of nuclear weapons, and even trigger a Chinese move on Taiwan.”

At the same time, the report underscored South Korea’s critical role in securing the global semiconductor supply chain. As the world’s second-largest chip producer, accounting for 71 percent of the global DRAM market and more than half of NAND flash memory output, Seoul is seen as central to U.S. efforts to “de-risk” chipmaking away from China.

The report also cited Korea’s growing importance in advanced materials, including batteries, electronics-grade silicon, and high-purity tungsten used in defense systems. In areas related to semiconductors, critical minerals, and the control of technology exports to China, Carnegie described South Korea as “very important.”

Still, across most other categories — including co-development of defense systems and broader geopolitical alignment — the report deemed Seoul only “somewhat important.”

The findings come as Washington and Seoul work to modernize their seven-decade-old alliance, with both sides seeking to balance security commitments with economic cooperation amid an increasingly polarized Asia. “Seoul views U.S.-China competition as a threat to its economic interests,” the report concluded, “but it has nevertheless taken small steps toward deepening ties with Washington and Tokyo in response to China’s rise.”

M. H. Lee (mhlee@koreabizwire.com)