Cautious Hopes Reemerge for Japan’s Role over N. Korean Nuclear Conundrum

WASHINGTON, Feb. 21 (Korea Bizwire) — With South Korea and the United States estranged from North Korea, cautious hopes are reemerging that Japan’s diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang could lead to an opening for the resumption of long-stalled diplomacy for peace with the recalcitrant regime.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly expressed his intention to meet “unconditionally” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as behind-the-scenes talks have reportedly been under way for a potential summit.

Though some speculate that Kishida eyes a summit with Kim to address the long-festering issue of Japanese abducted by the North decades ago, and shore up his low approval ratings, his overture has drawn attention to whether Japan can help engineer a shift from Pyongyang’s provocative streak.

The premier’s pursuit of the summit gained momentum last week as Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader’s sister, signaled openness to improving relations with Japan — in a cryptic gesture that critics worried could potentially be intended to cause a fissure in burgeoning cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

Intentions aside, observers noted that Japan could leverage its potential compensation to the North for its colonial-era occupation — not for the regime’s military adventurism — to help ease evolving North Korean nuclear threats and promote stability on the Korean Peninsula.

“In the broad scheme of things, Tokyo’s engagement with Pyongyang could help promote stability on the Korean Peninsula and stabilize inter-Korean relations albeit in the long-run, given that for South Korea, Japan is a friendly nation with shared values,” Nam Chang-hee, professor of international relations at Inha University, said.

“Should Japan reach consensus with the North in light of compensation not for the North’s nuclear weapons development but for the past colonial rule, the two sides can see their ties improve, likely opening a path for Japan to contribute to addressing the North’s nuclear quandary,” he added.

For some in South Korea, Pyongyang’s unusual show of interest in diplomacy with Tokyo struck a sour note, as it came amid improvement in long-fraught relations between Seoul and Tokyo, and the two neighbors’ unprecedented level of trilateral cooperation with Washington to counter North Korean threats.

Last Thursday, Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader’s powerful sister, said that Kishida might be able to visit Pyongyang should Tokyo drops its “bad habit” of taking issue with the North’s “legitimate right to self-defense” and the abduction issue.

The statement came shortly after South Korea established diplomatic relations with Cuba — in what could be a stinging diplomatic blow to North Korea that has long boasted “brotherly” relations with the Latin American country.

Notable signs of Pyongyang’s interest in diplomacy with Tokyo were also detected last month when the North Korean leader sent a rare message of condolence to Kishida over a deadly earthquake.

Should high-level diplomacy between Japan and the North materialize, it would be driven by a convergence of mutual interests, observers said.

Leader Kim could see engagement with Tokyo as a chance to address the North’s economic travails that have continued to worsen due to biting international sanctions and the lingering aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic development is a critical element of his regime’s legitimacy as his grandfather Kim Il-sung and his father Kim Jong-il have been largely credited with other key pillars of the regime’s legitimacy — the ideological and military establishments.

For Kishida, the potential summitry would serve as a rare opportunity to address the long-elusive abduction issue, the settlement of which would help him secure a coveted place in the history of Japanese politics and diplomacy.

But whether the abduction issue can be put on the table for a summit remains to be seen as Pyongyang maintains the issue has already been settled.

Tokyo has officially recognized 17 citizens as victims abducted by the North in the 1970s and 1980s. Five of them returned to Japan following then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s trip to Pyongyang in 2002. But the other 12 abductees still remain unaccounted for.

Pyongyang argues that of the 12 Japanese nationals in question, eight passed away with four having never come to the North. The regime is known to have kidnapped Japanese nationals to train its spies in Japanese language and culture.

“Prime Minister Kishida wants to remind the Japanese people that he will do whatever he can to bring closure for families of abductees,” Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, told Yonhap News Agency via email.

“Yet he is also helping to open a diplomatic channel to the Kim regime, which refuses to talk with the Biden or Yoon administrations. The likelihood is that no summit occurs or no progress even if a summit could be arranged. But at least the prime minister will have failed trying,” he added.

Pyongyang’s apparent move closer to Tokyo stood in stark contrast with its rejection of dialogue with Seoul and Washington. It even branded the South as a “primary” foe and took steps to abolish institutions dedicated to inter-Korean cooperation.

Keeping close tabs on the North’s move, an official at Seoul’s foreign ministry stressed last Friday that any contact between Tokyo and Pyongyang should be made in a way that would “help promote the peace and stability on the peninsula.

“We are closely communicating with the Japanese side on North Korean issues, including contact between Tokyo and Pyongyang,” the official said. “South Korea, the United States and Japan are closely coordinating to bring North Korea back on the path to denuclearization.”

On Tuesday, Pentagon’s deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh pointed out that Washington would welcome conversations between Japan and the North should their engagement lead to stability in the region.

While some express optimism for the emergence of diplomatic opportunities, skepticism persists that even if a summit between Tokyo and Pyongyang is realized, it would be difficult to see progress on the goal of the North’s denuclearization given the regime has enshrined its nuclear status in its constitution.

“Japan is unwilling to deviate much from the U.S. position on denuclearization and ballistic missiles. Also, remember, North Korea said that it does not want to talk about denuclearization, so it doesn’t matter whether it’s Washington or Tokyo that is the interlocutor,” Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, told Yonhap News via email.

“The only area for discussion between Japan and North Korea is probably on the abductee issue. There is potentially some space for a deal on information about abductees for some economic benefits. But North Korea, in the recent past, has not been very forthcoming about abductee information,” he added.

Sydney Seiler, former intelligence officer on North Korea at the U.S. National Intelligence Council, said that Pyongyang does not appear to be serious about the prospects of a summit with Tokyo, as he highlighted that the North has shifted to an inward-looking survival strategy centering on its own internal efforts rather than on diplomacy.

“They might have felt an obligation to respond publicly to Kishida’s comment about wanting to talk without openly rejecting it for no reason,” Seiler told Yonhap News over the phone.

(Yonhap)