This photo, taken on June 30, 2019, shows then U.S. President Donald Trump (L) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border truce village of Panmunjom. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
WASHINGTON, Jul. 18 (Korea Bizwire) — Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s formal nomination as the Republican flag-bearer this week is raising anew crucial policy questions over how he would deal with advancing North Korean threats, the alliance with South Korea and other high-stakes issues should he return to office.
Both hope and concern have been arising as Trump’s “America first” credo could pose policy challenges to South Korea and other allies, but his deal-making disposition and relatively unconventional diplomatic approach could create opportunities to address the long-elusive North Korean conundrum.
At the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Monday, Trump was officially crowned as the GOP nominee for the Nov. 5 presidential election. There, his supporters appeared to have coalesced more robustly behind him after he was shot in the ear in an assassination attempt on Saturday.
Trump has also announced his vice presidential pick, Sen. J.D. Vance, a former venture capitalist who opposes aid for Ukraine and appears skeptical of American intervention overseas — a stance that observers said hinted at his isolationist inclination.
The high-spirited convention came as Trump’s reelection campaign has been on a relatively stable footing — despite his May conviction in a hush-money trial — amid mounting pressure on his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden, to step aside following the incumbent’s dismal debate performance last month.
As anticipated, a second-term Trump administration could put pressure on South Korea and other allies to jack up their defense spending in a way that lessens the United States’ financial burden, analysts said. In tune with Trump’s view, Republican leaders have stressed the importance of “burden sharing.”
“Together, we will make sure our allies share in the burden of securing world peace,” Vance told a cheering crowd at the convention on Wednesday. “No more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer.”
Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump’s national security advisor from 2019-2021, said that he was looking forward to seeing South Korea’s “big” contribution for defense, while calling the Asian ally a “wealthy” country,
“South Korea can afford to pay for its defense,” O’Brien told Yonhap News Agency in Milwaukee on Tuesday. “We look forward to seeing a big contribution for South Korea, which it is already making, by the way, with its Navy and its Army and its military equipment.”
Their remarks came as South Korea and the U.S. have been engaging in negotiations to determine Seoul’s share of the cost for stationing U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
The negotiations kicked off earlier than usual in April amid speculation that Trump, if reelected, could play hardball in a way that could cause friction with Seoul. Some observers expressed apprehension that even if a new defense cost-sharing deal is struck under the Biden administration, Trump could seek renegotiation — a move that could put Seoul in an awkward position.
The question of whether Trump would consider reducing USFK troop levels or pulling out all together has also been a point of keen attention in Seoul.
This photo, released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency, shows a mass rally by workers, youth and students against “U.S. imperialism” in Pyongyang on the occasion of the anniversary of the start of the 1950-53 Korean War on June 25, 2024. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
In an April interview with TIME, an American news magazine, Trump suggested that the U.S. could withdraw its troops stationed in South Korea if the Asian ally doesn’t make more financial contributions to support the USFK service members.
But former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, an influential Republican figure, told reporters at the Milwaukee convention that he “has not seen any desire” within his party for a USFK drawdown.
Analysts have said that Trump’s first-term foreign policy took on isolationist hues as witnessed in his administration’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change and curtail other overseas involvement. This has raised doubts over whether Trump would stay fast to America’s security commitments to Asian allies.
Some closely aligned with Trump have sought to tamp down those concerns.
“America First is not isolationist, nor is it a call to retreat America from engagement in the world,” retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz — former officials during Trump’s presidency — wrote in a book, titled “An America First Approach to U.S. National Security.”
“An America First approach to national security is, however, characteristically distinct from a foreign policy establishment that often keeps the United States mired in endless wars to the detriment of the country by putting idealistic principles ahead of the interests of the American people.”
As Trump has boasted his personal ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, expectations remain high that he might try to restart his direct diplomacy with the recalcitrant regime to complete the unfinished business of addressing the North Korean nuclear quandary.
During his first term, Trump employed a direct leader-to-leader diplomacy with the North, leading to three high-profile meetings with Kim, including the first-ever bilateral summit in Singapore in 2018, though serious bilateral nuclear talks have been stalled since the no-deal summit in Hanoi in February 2019.
During the Hanoi summit, the North Korean leader offered to dismantle the mainstay Yongbyon nuclear complex, but Trump apparently wanted more concessions as the U.S. saw the complex as only a part of the North’s sprawling nuclear program.
In an article earlier this month, Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea Foundation chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Asia Policy Studies, and Hanna Foreman, a senior research assistant of the center, said that a second Trump administration might resume direct diplomacy with the North, but doing so carries several risks.
“In contrast to Biden, Trump might be more willing to sacrifice coordination and unity with U.S. allies to make a deal with North Korea. Trump has proposed reducing U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula and suspending joint military exercises,” they said in the article, titled “Why North Korea matters for the 2024 U.S. election?.”
“Such U.S. actions would be appealing to Kim, but it would also undermine military readiness, weaken deterrence against North Korea and sow division between Seoul and Washington,” they added.
As always, a key question is about whether Pyongyang would accede to a U.S. call to resume dialogue particularly at a time when its growing ties with Moscow have apparently reduced its appetite for reengagement with either Washington or Seoul.
“I think Trump would like to make a deal with Kim Jong-un. The problem is that Kim Jong-un is unlikely to accept a balanced deal that will be acceptable to the American policy community,” Bruce Bennett, a prominent Korea expert at RAND Corp. told Yonhap News Agency via email.
“This is a repeat of the Hanoi problem Trump faced. My understanding is that Trump walked out of the Hanoi meeting not because he insisted on an all-or-nothing deal, but rather because Kim was unwilling to offer a balanced deal,” he added.
Despite various predictions, many analysts agree that uncertainty would be a hallmark of Trump’s policy direction.
“The only real certainty about the policies of a Trump 2.0 towards Korea and the Korean Peninsula is that there will continue to be a great deal of uncertainty up until Trump is actually elected and back in the Oval Office,” Robert Rapson, a retired veteran American diplomat, told Yonhap News Agency.
Rapson cautioned against overly worrying about what policy shift a second-term Trump government would bring about, saying that “the only person who really knows is Trump.”
“So a key for Korea is to not frantically over-worry — as some here in the think tank world have advised — but to coolly, calmly, and continually assess and maintain policy flexibility across a range of possible outcomes and options,” he said.
(Yonhap)
