HONG KONG and SINGAPORE, Dec. 28 (Korea Bizwire) — 2020 has been an eventful year which saw some of the toughest social, economic and political challenges in recent times. While stabilization of markets seems to be within reach with the introduction of new COVID-19 vaccines and new leadership in the US, investors should expect the process to be gradual and long as the structural changes caused by the pandemic will take time to reverse if not already permanently shifted, Manulife Investment Management says in its regional outlook for the year ahead.
Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist, Manulife Investment Management, said: “One of the most critical features of the COVID-19 recession globally is that it more disproportionately hits the services side of the economy and it was much less painful for the manufacturing side. We refer to this as the K-shape recovery going into 2021 of which sectors that provide the essentials during the pandemic, such as manufacturing, technology, will continue to grow, while those more driven by the demand and supply dynamics, such as retail and services, may continue on a downward slope.
“Overall, we expect the ongoing weakness in the US dollar and central banks likely to stay dovish in the next six months to become the more important market drivers for Asia. Given the low interest rate environment, which could be here with us for another decade or so, investors may need to take on more risk and tap higher-yielding instruments that were previously under owned, such as infrastructure and agriculture, to generate the income they seek.”
Asian equities: Wider opportunity set amid vaccine availability and reopening of borders
With the roll out of COVID-19 vaccines, reopening of borders and normalization of economies in Asia seem to be within reach. Ronald Chan, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Asia (ex-Japan), Manulife Investment Management, believes staying invested and diversified will continue to benefit investors in 2021, as the expected sector rotation in Asian equities will present a wider opportunity set for capturing alpha.
“Asian equities in general are trading at 30% discount versus developed market equities1, and future earnings growth are expected to be in the high teens. This is because Asia is still benefiting from external demand, particularly when growth in developed markets will be propped up by fiscal policy and in turn support Asia exports,” said Ronald.
“In addition, it is expected that half of the Asia population will have been vaccinated by the second half of 2021, which means borders will reopen and growth within Asia will resume. Coupled with supply chain relocation and implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement, we can expect growth in trade within the region.
“After attracting US$20 billion of inflows in 20202, China remains a bright spot in 2021 as the economy continues to recover and driven by the three main pillars of Technology, Sustainability, and ‘Dual Circulation’ prescribed in China’s 14th five-year plan. China’s relationship with the US is expected to be about the same under a new US President. Talks and competition between the two will continue, but a Biden administration could be more predictable and less hostile. Coupled with the fact the two countries’ leaders have climate change as a common goal, we could potentially see improvements in the relationship.
“Overall, we favor North Asia over Southeast Asia in 2021 in part due to potential softening of Sino-US relations, a weak US dollar to have positive impact on procyclical currencies in the subregion, and more capital flow into China given the growth divergence it has with the rest of the world.
“Sector-wise, we believe new technology like artificial intelligence, automation, 5G, and biotech will continue to perform as a result of the pandemic and the need for businesses to adopt some of these technologies to maintain growth. There will be more attention on sustainability-related industries such as electric vehicles and battery storage and supply chain, as countries around the world place stronger emphasis on climate change. Lastly, with economic recovery on the horizon, it is worth keeping an eye on cyclical and value names such as those in the property sector.”
Asian fixed income: “Interesting juncture” in global context
Negative yields in developed market bonds have made it more challenging for bond and income-focused investors, particularly in a lower for longer interest rate environment. Attention is now drawn to Asian bonds which not only offer positive yields but also higher quality investment opportunities.
Murray Collis, Deputy CIO, Fixed Income, Asia (ex-Japan), Manulife Investment Management, said: “Asian bonds are in a sweet spot compared to developed market bonds. For instance, we think Chinese bonds will continue to attract foreign inflows in 2021 from its index inclusion and yields of Indonesian and South Korean 10-year sovereign bonds are trading well above US Treasury.
“On the credit side, US dollar Asian corporate bonds are rated investment grade on average, and with the yield premium and lower drawdown relative to US credit markets that we have witnessed in 2020, we believe Asian bonds is an attractive proposition for investors globally.
“We are also seeing compelling sustainable opportunities in the Asian bonds landscape, as climate change, demographics and governance become top-of-mind themes among investors. In addition, evidence suggests that sustainable investing can achieve the same, if not better, returns versus traditional bonds. For instance, the JP Morgan ESG Asia Credit Index and the JP Morgan Asia Credit Index both have a cumulative performance of 43%3, but the former has less than half of the carbon intensity 4(196.2Tons of CO2e / $M revenue) as the latter (419.5 Tons of CO2e / $M revenue). As such, we believe Asian fixed income portfolios should not only consider ESG risks but also actively take advantage of ESG opportunities.
“News of the vaccine is positive for growth, but some trends may have changed permanently, such as more jobs shifting to permanent work-from-home model, and some business and/or factories are forever lost or relocated. We believe the strong fundamental of Asia, supportive global backdrop, and the multi-year sustainable investing trend makes Asian bonds an attractive asset class in 2021.”
About Manulife Investment Management
Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. We draw on more than a century of financial stewardship and the full resources of our parent company to serve individuals, institutions, and retirement plan members worldwide. Headquartered in Toronto, our leading capabilities in public and private markets are strengthened by an investment footprint that spans 17 countries and territories. We complement these capabilities by providing access to a network of unaffiliated asset managers from around the world. We’re committed to investing responsibly across our businesses. We develop innovative global frameworks for sustainable investing, collaboratively engage with companies in our securities portfolios, and maintain a high standard of stewardship where we own and operate assets, and we believe in supporting financial well-being through our workplace retirement plans. Today, plan sponsors around the world rely on our retirement plan administration and investment expertise to help their employees plan for, save for, and live a better retirement.
As of September 30, 2020, Manulife Investment Management had CAD$923 billion (US$692 billion) in assets under management and administration. Not all offerings are available in all jurisdictions. For additional information, please visit manulifeim.com.
A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment.
This material, intended for the exclusive use by the recipients who are allowable to receive this document under the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions, was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Manulife Investment Management as of the date of writing and are subject to change. The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or the information and/or analysis contained herein. Information about the portfolio’s holdings, asset allocation, or country diversification is historical and is not an indication of future portfolio composition, which will vary. Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein.
The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline or other expectations, and is only as current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information in this material including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, solicitation or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security. This material should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Investment involves risk. Investors should not base on this material alone to make investment decisions and should read the offering document (if applicable) for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of any investment products.
Proprietary Information – Please note that this material must not be wholly or partially reproduced, distributed, circulated, disseminated, published or disclosed, in any form and for any purpose, to any third party without prior approval from Manulife Investment Management.
This material is issued by Manulife Investment Management (Asia), a division of Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited.
This material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).
1 Source: Bloomberg, 21 December 2020.
2 Source: Morningstar, December 2020. The inflow is for offshore open-ended funds not denominated in CNY.
3 Source: Bloomberg, 30 November 2020. Figures shown are in gross USD terms. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment involves risk. The J.P. Morgan ESG Asia Credit Index (JESG JACI) tracks the total return performance of the Asia ex-Japan USD-denominated debt instruments across the Asian Fixed Income asset class, including floating, perpetual, and subordinated bonds issued by Sovereign, Quasi-Sovereign and Corporate entities. The index applies an Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) scoring and screening methodology to tilt toward green bond issues or issuers ranked higher on ESG criteria, and to underweight or remove issuers that rank lower.
4 Carbon intensity data sourced via Trucost ESG Analysis. Carbon intensity refers to Scope 1 & 2 Tons CO2 equivalent emissions per million USD revenues.
Media contacts: Connie Chan Hume Brophy Communications +852 9626 1414 email@example.com Carl Wong Manulife Investment Management Asia +852 2510 3180 firstname.lastname@example.org
Source: Manulife Investment Management via GLOBE NEWSWIRE