The accuracy of weather forecasts during the recent monsoon season was under 30 percent, stirring up criticism directed towards the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). (Image : Kobizmedia / Korea bizwire)
SEOUL, Aug. 6 (Korea Bizwire) - The accuracy of weather forecasts during the recent monsoon season was under 30 percent, stirring up criticism directed towards the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
The accuracy of the forecasts on days when it rained was 27.9 percent during the 43-day monsoon season (June 17 to July 29). The numbers say that it only rained one out of three times the KMA predicted there would be showers.
On the other hand, the KMA showed an 85.6 accuracy rate on clear days, but other than that, they were on a losing streak. As the KMA showed the highest margin of error among countries when predicting the course of the typhoon ‘Chan-hom‘, people ridiculed the agency’s scientists, saying they should be hired at the weather center because their arthritis is far more accurate than the forecasts.
The KMA explained the reasons behind their errors. “It is harder to predict when and where it will rain because of local downpours and sudden showers. Also, we had a lower amount of rain this year, making it more difficult to predict the weather.”
Experts also say that since Korea has all four seasons, and extreme weather conditions such as typhoons and heavy snow are included in the annual cycle, Koreans are far more sensitive about the weather and the forecasts.
To meet the needs of the people, the KMA is developing a forecasting model that suits the Korean climate, with plans for completion in 2019. Currently they are adopting the British model in their forecasts.
The KMS is determined to show higher rates of accuracy in their forecasts. “Other than the development of a new forecast model, we are planning to purchase a new super computer. We will make efforts to provide a more accurate forecast for the convenience of the people.”
By Francine Jung (francine.jung@kobizmedia.co.kr)
