The possibility of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula has reached its highest level since the 1950-53 Korean War. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
SEOUL, Oct. 9 (Korea Bizwire) – The possibility of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula has reached its highest level since the 1950-53 Korean War, according to a recent analysis published in Foreign Policy magazine.
Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, wrote in his article that while an immediate outbreak of war seems unlikely, “North Korea has increased the likelihood of dramatic action within the next 6 to 18 months.”
Manning points to unsettling developments, including North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s declaration of nuclear power status and his recent characterization of inter-Korean relations as “two hostile states.”
The article cites a report from the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) suggesting that if Kim becomes convinced of North Korea’s military superiority over South Korea and believes that nuclear weapons could deter U.S. intervention, he may adopt a more provocative stance.
Drawing on analyses from Korean experts and the NIC, Manning outlines two potential war scenarios:
The first involves North Korea shelling and invading Yeonpyeong Island in response to U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises. This could escalate to South Korea deploying air and naval forces, potentially leading to North Korea detonating a tactical nuclear weapon on an uninhabited island in the West Sea.
Manning warns that such a scenario could quickly become unmanageable, given the lack of stable diplomatic and military channels between North Korea and the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
The second scenario, based on an analysis by former NIC official Markus Garlauskas, involves simultaneous conflicts in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. This could occur if North Korea seizes an opportunity to attack South Korea while U.S. forces are engaged in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
Despite these alarming possibilities, Manning notes that both the United States and China do not view the Korean Peninsula as an urgent priority. He suggests that issues in Ukraine and the Middle East have diverted attention from the North Korean problem.
“Kim Jong-un likely wants to send a message to the outside world,” Manning concludes, hinting at the potential for provocative actions in the near future.
M. H. Lee (mhlee@koreabizwire.com)
