South Korea’s rapid aging and declining birth rates will outpace global trends over the next five decades. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
SEOUL, Sept. 24 (Korea Bizwire) – A new government report paints a stark picture of South Korea’s demographic future, projecting that the country’s rapid aging and declining birth rates will outpace global trends over the next five decades.
The Statistics Korea report, released on September 23, forecasts that by 2072, nearly half of South Korea’s population will be 65 or older, marking a dramatic shift in the nation’s demographic landscape.
According to the projections, the proportion of elderly citizens in South Korea is expected to surge from 19.2% in 2024 to a staggering 47.7% by 2072. This increase far outstrips the global average, which is predicted to rise from 10.2% to 20.3% over the same period.
By 2072, South Korea is projected to have the third-highest proportion of elderly citizens globally, trailing only Hong Kong (58.5%) and Puerto Rico (50.8%).
This represents a slight improvement from previous forecasts, which the statistics office attributes to a marginal increase in the working-age population due to immigration.
The country’s total fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — is expected to remain among the world’s lowest.
In 2022, South Korea’s fertility rate stood at 0.72, the lowest globally except for Macau (0.66) and Hong Kong (0.72). By 2072, it is projected to rise slightly to 1.08, still the second-lowest worldwide after Macau.
These demographic shifts will dramatically increase the old-age dependency ratio, which measures the number of elderly citizens per 100 working-age individuals. This ratio is forecast to quadruple from 27.4 in 2024 to 104.2 in 2072, far outpacing the global increase.
The median age of South Koreans is expected to climb from 46.1 years in 2024 to 63.4 years in 2072, significantly higher than projections for the world (39.2), North America (44.1), and Europe (48).
Life expectancy in South Korea is anticipated to increase from 82.7 years in 2022 to 91.1 years in 2072, matching Japan and surpassing other developed nations like the United States, China, Germany, France, and Italy.
The combination of low birth rates and an aging population is expected to shrink South Korea’s overall population from 52 million in 2024 to 36 million by 2072, a 30.8% decrease.
This contrasts sharply with the projected 25.2% increase in global population over the same period. Consequently, South Korea’s global population ranking is expected to plummet from 29th to 59th.
Even when combined with North Korea’s population, the total for the Korean peninsula is projected to decline from 78 million to 59 million by 2072.
M. H. Lee (mhlee@koreabizwire.com)
