Israel-Hamas Conflict Could Nudge N. Korean Issue onto Back Burner: Experts

WASHINGTON, Oct. 10 (Korea Bizwire) — The reigniting of the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, could shift the United States’ attention further away from North Korea’s nuclear quandary, analysts said Tuesday.

The conflict flared up following the Palestinian militant group’s deadly surprise attack on Israel on Saturday, as Washington’s stated commitment to diplomacy with Pyongyang has fallen on deaf years amid the North’s unceasing drive for nuclear armament.

President Joe Biden pledged “full support” for Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean while Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the U.S.’ “solidarity” with Israel.

The U.S.’ apparent reapportioning of diplomatic and security resources for conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe has raised speculation that it would be harder for the U.S. to pay more attention to addressing the North Korean conundrum.

“With the president being the only commander-in-chief, the focus on security on the Korean Peninsula could weaken as a new front has emerged,” Nam Chang-hee, a political science professor at Inha University, said.

“As the contours of global security have gotten more complicated, chances are that Washington could try to manage the status quo, seeking to ensure that the overall situation on the peninsula would not further deteriorate,” he added.

The U.S. is expected to focus its foreign policy attention on the Israel-Hamas conflict for the time being as it has led to at least 11 American deaths. Washington has also been striving to maintain a prominent presence in the Middle East, where China has apparently been eyeing greater influence, particularly in the wake of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Biden told his team to “do everything we can” to ensure that Israel has what it needs, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby told reporters, though Kirby noted there is “no intention to put U.S. boots on the ground” in Israel.

The U.S.’ support for Israel was on full display when Austin ordered the deployment of the carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean, while the defense department also decided to jack up support for Israeli air defenses and additional munitions.

“The versatility and mobility of the strike group, which can conduct a full spectrum of missions, from intelligence collection, maritime dominance, to long-range strike, will ensure the U.S. is postured to respond to any contingencies and minimize the risk of a wider spread conflict that would threaten stability,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters.

Washington’s attention pivoted to Israel just as it has been heavily consumed with supporting Ukraine’s fight to repel Russian invaders — an undertaking that has slowed amid partisan wrangling in Congress.

The two crucial military fronts raised concerns that the North Korean issue could be put on the back burner.

“Of course, but North Korea doesn’t just pause their activities because there are other things going on in the world,” Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said. “If anything, it goes to show why we need a full time special envoy to keep working on this issue while the administration’s attention is divided.”

The U.S. has repeatedly signaled its desire to restart diplomacy with the North, but skepticism has persisted over whether the two sides can resume dialogue, particularly when the reclusive regime has been seeking closer ties with its traditional partners, Russia and China.

Amid the absence of dialogue with the U.S., Pyongyang has enshrined a policy, which fortifies its nuclear capabilities, in the constitution and doubled down on various defense projects, including its push to develop tactical nuclear arms and put a spy military satellite into orbit.

In recent months, North Korea’s place in the Biden administration’s key diplomatic agenda appears to have diminished though Washington has cranked up diplomacy with China under its “de-risking” mantra and sought a degree of interaction with Iran as seen in its recent prisoner swap deal.

“The Biden administration wasn’t interested in taking any diplomatic risks with North Korea prior to Ukraine and Israel and it’s even less interested after Ukraine and Israel,” Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, said.

Amid the reemergent questions over America’s will to tackle the North Korean nuclear issue, Washington has decided to deploy USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, to South Korea for a five-day visit, starting Thursday (Korea time), in a major show of force.

Direct diplomatic talks between the U.S. and the North have been stalled since the two countries held working-level nuclear talks in Sweden in October 2019 in the wake of the bilateral no-deal summit in Hanoi in February that year.

The pandemic-driven border closures further darkened the prospects of reengagement between the two countries. However, the North reopened its borders last month, fueling hopes that it could set out to engage in more diplomatic exchanges with the outside world.

The North’s unconditional release of Pvt. Travis King, detained for crossing the inter-Korean border into the North in July briefly raised cautious hopes for the resumption of dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang, but Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesperson, has dismissed the notion that the release could be a potential sign of breakthrough in the two countries’ fraught relationship.

Patrick M. Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, dismissed concerns that two conflicts at hand would make it difficult for the U.S. to refocus on the North Korean issue as he noted the readiness of American diplomats to engage in diplomacy with Pyongyang.

“More realistically, we should be examining North Korea’s military support for Hamas, Russia and other aggressors,” he said.

Radio Free Asia, a Washington-based media outlet, reported on the suspected use of North Korean weapons by Hamas fighters, citing a video shared by on the X, formerly Twitter, account @War Noir.

Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies, said that although the Hamas attack will take up the U.S.’ diplomatic bandwidth, Washington will continue to monitor any new development on the peninsula closely.

But he added, “I don’t expect any proactive diplomatic engagement on North Korea for the rest of this year.”

(Yonhap)