This file photo, captured from the homepage of North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 11, 2022, shows Kim Yo-jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister and vice department director of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
WASHINGTON, Dec. 13 (Korea Bizwire) — Prospects for the resumption of dialogue between the United States and North Korea appear to be growing dimmer as Washington’s diplomatic overtures have fallen on deaf ears, fanning skepticism about bilateral reengagement.
Deepening skepticism in Washington was highlighted last week when Kurt Campbell — President Joe Biden’s top Indo-Pacific advisor and nominee for deputy secretary of state — stressed the need to focus “even more” on deterrence, citing Pyongyang’s rejection of dialogue.
The planned retirement of Sung Kim, a seasoned U.S. diplomat in charge of diplomacy with the North, could further dim chances of dialogue with the regime, while Washington is heavily consumed with the instability in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine, analysts said.
“With the U.S. presidential election less than a year away, North Korea may not feel the need to move should there not be any special offer from the Biden administration,” Nam Chang-hee, a professor of political science at Inha University, said.
“Being preoccupied with the war between Israel and the Hamas militant group, the U.S. may think that as long as North Korea does not stir up any big trouble, it could settle (for the current situation) given that it does not appear to anticipate any epoch-making breakthrough with the North,” he added.
Pyongyang might be waiting for the potential return to the White House of former President Donald Trump in next year’s U.S. election, Nam noted, given that his unorthodox brand of diplomacy created openings for leader-to-leader diplomacy with the North while his America-first approach caused friction with U.S. allies.
According to U.S. news outlet, Politico, Trump is considering a plan to let the North Korean regime keep its nuclear arms and offer it incentives to stop making new bombs as he seeks to win a second presidential term. Trump later dismissed the article as “fake news.”
Serious nuclear talks between the U.S. and the North have not been held since the no-deal summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi in February 2019.
Kurt Campbell, nominee for deputy secretary of state, speaks during a Senate confirmation hearing on Dec. 7, 2023 in this photo captured from the livestreaming of the hearing on the website of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
Since the Biden administration took office in January 2021, it has put out diplomatic feelers to the North, saying it can meet with the North “anywhere, anytime without preconditions.” It has also stressed it harbors “no hostile intent” toward the North.
But such public offers went unanswered in part because of the North’s increased aversion to interactions with the outside world during COVID-19 and a lack of incentives for a return to dialogue. The regime’s pursuit of tighter cooperation with Russia and China has underscored its dwindling need to engage with the U.S.
The North’s nonresponse has stoked skepticism within the Biden administration and apparently strengthened voices in support of a renewed focus on military readiness against evolving North Korean threats.
“I am worried that North Korea in the current environment has decided that they are no longer interested in diplomacy with the United States,” Campbell said during a Senate confirmation hearing last week. “That means that we are going to have to focus even more on deterrence.”
Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, defended Campbell’s misgivings over a dialogue-focused approach as “well founded.”
“I think it’s safe to say that his skepticism is well founded given that we have seen North Korea refuse to accept our offer to pursue diplomatic alternatives since the beginning of this administration,” Miller told a press briefing on Monday.
A ground-based interceptor is launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Dec. 11, 2023, in this photo released by Space Launch Delta 30, a U.S. military unit responsible for space launch operations from the west coast. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
Last month’s statement by Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of the North Korean leader, apparently added to the skepticism.
In the statement, Kim said that “the sovereignty of an independent state can never be an agenda item for negotiations” — in an apparent rejection of any talks on its denuclearization.
The planned departure of U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim could bode ill for the resumption of dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang. Kim is known for his extensive experience and expertise on the reclusive regime, which he has built through direct engagements with North Korean diplomats and officials since the 2000s.
“Amb. Kim’s departure accurately represents the state of diplomatic prospects between the U.S. and DPRK,” Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, said, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“Kim Jong-un wants concessions that leaders in Washington and Seoul cannot deliver. Not getting many offers, Mr. Kim will hope that Russia and China will allow his military arsenal to bring future leverage,” he added.
Amid doubts over the North’s possible return to dialogue, the U.S. appears to be stepping up its military readiness.
On Monday, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency successfully conducted a test of an upgraded ground-based interceptor as it is revving up efforts to counter missile threats from North Korea, Iran and other potential adversaries.
In October, the Defense Department announced its pursuit of a new variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, a centerpiece of America’s nuclear stockpile, at a time when Pyongyang is doubling down on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
The U.S. focus on stronger deterrence came as tensions rose on the Korean Peninsula following the North’s decision to walk away from a 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement in response to the South’s partial suspension of the agreement.
The absence of dialogue between the two Koreas and between the U.S. and the North has fueled worries about the possibility of miscalculation leading to a crisis on the peninsula.
“My greatest concern is we’re not talking to North Korea,” Retired Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, a former U.S. Forces Korea commander, said at a recent forum hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The renewed push by the U.S. and South Korea to shine a light on the North’s human rights violations — a sore spot for the dynastic regime in Pyongyang — could also put the North on the defensive and nudge it further away from dialogue, observers said.
(Yonhap)
