White House Race Brings into Focus U.S. Foreign Policy Outlook

WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 (Korea Bizwire) — As the U.S. presidential race officially kicks off this week, global attention is gravitating to the outlook for America’s post-election foreign policy that would have profound implications for its alliances, approach to North Korea and rivalry with China.

The White House race is set to begin on Monday with the first vote of the Republican nomination contest in Iowa, where former President Donald Trump eyes a key victory to position himself as a clear frontrunner in the state-by-state intraparty battle.

The Nov. 5 presidential election is largely expected to be a showdown between incumbent President Joe Biden and Trump, though uncertainties remain over Trump’s legal challenges, Biden’s old age and low approval ratings, and the fluid sentiment in swing states.

The election season is kicking in at a pivotal moment when the world is closely watching how the United States will address — or navigate — an intricate web of global challenges from growing tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine to North Korea’s nuclear adventurism.

Analysts said that depending on the election outcome, Washington’s policy pendulum could shift given that Biden and Trump diverge on their approaches to alliances, the North Korean threats and multilateral institutions to name a few, though they converge on the need for a tough stance on China’s challenges in security, technology and other areas of strategic importance.

“If elected, Trump may return with a stronger version of Trumpism based on experience from his first term,” Nam Chang-hee, professor of political science at Inha University, said, referring to Trump’s “America-first” credo that refocuses on the U.S. itself rather than external affairs.

“A second-term Biden administration may focus on reaping the fruits of his first-term policy endeavors to rectify what Biden saw as wrong legacies of Trump and restore America’s international stature,” he added.

The Democratic Party is scheduled to hold its first primary in South Carolina on Feb. 3, while the Republican Party will set in motion its nomination process with the Iowa caucuses on Monday. The early contests are only the start of the monthslong nomination process, but will serve as a crucial gauge of voter sentiment.

While Biden is seen as the most likely Democratic flag-bearer, the Republican field features a handful of contenders, including Trump, former South Carolina Gov. and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The Republican and Democratic Parties will announce their ultimate standard-bearers at conventions in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July and in Chicago, Illinois in August, respectively, though their most likely candidates may emerge after “Super Tuesday” contests on March 5.

Under the slogan of “Make America Great Again,” Trump, if elected, could reorient America’s policy trajectory, particularly given his unconventional brand of diplomacy that analysts said had sometimes fueled uncertainty over U.S. policy formulation and implementation.

“The only certainty about a second Trump term is that there will be great uncertainty, probably right up to Inauguration day,” Robert Rapson, a retired U.S. diplomat who formerly served as charge d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, told Yonhap News Agency.

“Margin of victory, composition of Congress and state of affairs in other world hot spots, plus disposition of his legal cases and his overall mood and mindset, will be important determinants overall.”

Having launched his reelection campaign last April to “finish the job,” Biden is expected to build on and cement progress from his policy initiatives to revitalize alliances and partnerships to address current and future challenges, including North Korea’s evolving threats and the “pacing” security challenge from China.

During the past few years, the Biden administration has strengthened the bilateral alliance with South Korea as seen in their adoption of the Washington Declaration involving deterrence efforts, such as the launch of the Nuclear Consultative Group, a body to discuss nuclear and strategic planning issues.

It has also been striving to reinvigorate trilateral security cooperation with South Korea and Japan on the back of last year’s thaw in relations between Seoul and Tokyo — an effort that culminated at the three countries’ first standalone summit at Camp David last August.

Under Biden, such multilateral engagements are expected to strengthen, including cooperation through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue consisting of the U.S., Australia, India and Japan, and the AUKUS platform involving the U.S., Britain and Australia, observers said.

When it comes to North Korea, Biden’s focus is expected to be more on deterrence than dialogue for the time being given the North’s rejection of diplomatic overtures, analysts said, though his policy tiller could shift depending on the North’s future course of action.

“The difficulty with any such predictions is that the actual actions taken by Biden if reelected and especially Trump if elected will be very much a function of how (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-un acts over the coming five years and what other things are going on in the world,” Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., said.

Bennett added, “While Biden appears to be trying to prevent the North from escalating the peninsula Cold War … but he could decide at some point that he cannot let North Korean bad behavior continue and apply stronger deterrence and retaliations.”

Known for his “transactional” approach to U.S. allies and partners during his term from 2017-2021, Trump, if elected, could chart a shift from Biden’s policy that regards U.S. allies as “great strategic assets” rather than free-riding on America’s security provisions, analysts noted.

In line with that approach, Trump could put pressure on allies to shoulder greater financial responsibilities for defense, security and other tasks, they predicted.

In 2019, then President Trump demanded a hefty rise in South Korea’s defense burden sharing cost for the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). He called for a fivefold increase to US$5 billion, leading to tensions between Seoul and Washington.

Under Trump, Washington could also lean towards reducing its overseas military involvements — a move that some say could raise anew the issue of whether to keep the current USFK troop level. Uncertainty would also arise over whether Trump would inherit Biden-era deals, such as the Washington Declaration.

Such predictions come as the first-term Trump administration’s foreign policy smacked of apparent isolationism as witnessed by its decisions to withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate change, the then Trans-Pacific Partnership, UNESCO and a landmark Iranian nuclear deal.

Regarding North Korea, a second-term Trump administration could attempt to revive his leader-to-leader diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim as Trump has boasted he and Kim “get along well,” analysts noted.

During his White House term, Trump sought direct engagement with the North Korean leader, which led to three face-to-face meetings between them, though serious dialogue between the two sides stalled after the no-deal Hanoi summit in February 2019.

Some observers warned that should there be a lack of policy coordination with the South, Trump’s direct engagement with the North could result in a cacophony between Seoul and Washington and stoke a rift in the alliance.

Politico, a U.S. media outlet, reported last month that Trump is considering a negotiation formula under which North Korea freezes — or retains — its nuclear program and stops building new weapons in return for sanctions relief and other incentives. But he dismissed it as “fake news.”

In the realm of trade, a second-term Trump administration could see a rise in tensions with China as Trump’s campaign is poised to enact “new and aggressive regulations” to prevent China’s ownership of U.S.-based assets, according to his campaign.

His proposal to phase in a “universal baseline tariff” on “most foreign products” could further raise friction with China and other countries. Growing tensions between Washington and Beijing could pose a tricky policy challenge for South Korea and other U.S. allies to navigate, observers said.

Despite the Biden administration’s “de-risking” drive, his second-term administration could also see an escalating rivalry with China amid continuing tensions over maritime security, technological leadership and trade among others.

Particularly on cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, Biden in his second term is expected to continue what National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called a “small yard, high fence” approach that keeps tight restrictions on select key technologies while ensuring the normal flow of trade in other sectors.

(Yonhap)