“World Meteorological Organization (WMO) El Niño–La Niña outlook for August. (Image source = WMO)
SEOUL, Sept. 3 (Korea Bizwire) — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Monday there is a better than even chance that La Niña conditions will develop in the Pacific later this year, a shift that could bring significant weather changes across Asia and beyond.
In its latest outlook, the WMO projected a 55 percent probability of La Niña emerging between September and November, with the likelihood rising to 60 percent in the October-to-December period. The chance of neutral conditions, neither El Niño nor La Niña, was placed at 45 percent for the fall and 40 percent by early winter.
La Niña occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific remain at least 0.5 degrees Celsius below average for several months. The phenomenon, the opposite of El Niño, can alter global weather by disrupting ocean–atmosphere circulation patterns.
In South Korea, early-season La Niña episodes have often brought warmer and wetter conditions in September and October, as high-pressure systems over the North Pacific drive warm, moist air northward. By contrast, La Niña events in late autumn and winter have historically been associated with colder, drier weather as northerly winds sweep down from Siberia.
Still, forecasters cautioned that the outlook carries considerable uncertainty, noting that other climate factors — including Arctic sea ice levels and sea-surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans — can influence outcomes. “Predictability remains limited,” the Korea Meteorological Administration said, adding that it will continue close monitoring in the coming months.
Ashley Song (ashley@koreabizwire.com)
