First-Grade Enrollment Set to Fall Below 300,000 for the First Time

On the morning of January 5, children set to enroll in school visit classrooms with their parents during a preliminary orientation at Palgong Elementary School in Dong District, Daegu. (Yonhap)

SEOUL, Jan. 13 (Korea Bizwire) — South Korea’s shrinking population is poised to reach another stark milestone this year, as the number of children entering elementary school is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time on record, according to the Education Ministry.

The ministry said it now estimates that 298,178 students will enter first grade nationwide in 2026, revising an earlier projection that had placed the threshold crossing a year later. Officials cited updated population data and other demographic indicators in moving the timeline forward.

The decline reflects the country’s persistently low birth rate and is rippling through the entire education system. The total number of students enrolled in elementary, middle and high schools is also expected to drop below five million this year, another unprecedented mark.

On the morning of January 5, a child set to enroll in school greets a teacher for the first time during a preliminary orientation at Palgong Elementary School in Dong District, Daegu. (Yonhap)

The contraction has been swift. First-grade enrollment fell below 700,000 at the start of the 2000s, sliding from more than 713,000 in 1999 to about 699,000 the following year.

The pace of decline has since accelerated, with first-grade enrollment dropping to roughly 535,000 in 2008, 468,000 in 2009, and just over 324,000 last year. Based on the latest estimate, the figure will have fallen by more than a quarter in only three years.

Looking ahead, the ministry projects that the number of new elementary school students will continue to shrink, falling to about 278,000 in 2027 and to roughly 220,000 by 2031, a level about one-third lower than last year’s intake.

On the afternoon of January 6, during a preliminary orientation for incoming students at public elementary schools in the Busan area for the 2026 academic year, twin prospective first graders and their parents look around a first-grade classroom at Changsin Elementary School in Yeonje District, Busan. (Yonhap)

Overall student enrollment across primary and secondary schools is expected to decline from just over 5 million last year to about 4.84 million this year, and to fall steadily to around 3.8 million by 2031.

The demographic shift is already reshaping South Korea’s education landscape. Schools at all levels are closing for lack of students, particularly in provincial areas, and universities outside the capital region are struggling to fill classrooms, underscoring the broader social and economic challenges posed by the country’s population decline.

Lina Jang (linajang@koreabizwire.com)