This photo, captured from the website of Eurasia Group, a U.S.-headquartered political risk consultancy, shows the Top Risks 2024 report. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
WASHINGTON, Jan. 8 (Korea Bizwire) — A U.S.-headquartered political risk consultancy named North Korea, Russia and Iran an “axis of rogues” in a report on its forecast of this year’s “top risks” on Monday, warning their deeper alignment and mutual support will pose a growing threat to global stability.
Eurasia Group released the “Top Risks 2024″ report that listed as the “biggest challenge” for the year “the United States versus itself” in the November presidential election that it said will be “by far the most consequential for the world’s security, stability, and economic outlook.”
Included in its 10 top risks are those concerning the war between Israel and the Hamas militant group, Russia’s war in Ukraine, ungoverned artificial intelligence (AI) and the fight for critical minerals.
Calling the North, Russia and Iran the “world’s most powerful rogue states,” the report noted that they have been strengthening cooperation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 based on their shared hatred of the U.S.
It also highlighted the North’s strategic value recently recognized by Russia.
“Once seen by Russia as a nuisance at best and a liability at worst, North Korea has become an essential resource for Vladimir Putin’s war effort in Ukraine thanks to its pariah status, militarized economy, and large stocks of Soviet-standard artillery ammunition,” the report said.
It took note of a summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September last year, where they apparently reached a deal for bilateral cooperation.
“(They struck) a deal that sends North Korean artillery shells, rockets, and ballistic missiles to Russia in exchange for Russian food, energy, and — most importantly — technological assistance, especially on satellite development and deployment,” the report said.
Cooperation among the three nations will present a global challenge, the report said.
“In 2024, deeper alignment and mutual support among these rogue states will pose a growing threat to global stability as they boost one another’s capabilities and act in increasingly coordinated and disruptive ways on the global stage,” it said.
On the U.S. presidential election, the report predicted that it will “test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years.”
“The losing side — whether Democrats or Republicans — will consider the outcome illegitimate and be unprepared to accept it,” the report said.
“The world’s most powerful country faces critical challenges to its core political institutions: free and fair elections, the peaceful transfer of power, and the checks and balances provided by the separation of powers. The political state of the union … is troubled indeed,” it added.
With Trump known for his America-first foreign policy, the report noted that the prospect of a Trump victory will weaken America’s position on the global stage as Republican lawmakers take up his policy positions and U.S. allies and adversaries hedge against his likely policies. It added that U.S. support for Ukraine will face “stronger headwinds” on Capital Hill.
On Ukraine, the report said that the war-torn country “will be de facto partitioned this year, an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West that will nevertheless become reality.”
It also forecast that breakthroughs in AI will move much faster than governance efforts.
(Yonhap)
