North Korea’s ‘balloons blown toward South Korea’ land in a rice field in Ganghwa Province (Yonhap)
SEOUL, July 3 (Korea Bizwire) – North Korea’s recent shift from sending propaganda leaflets to launching balloons filled with excrement into South Korea may be seen as an admission of the regime’s vulnerability, but experts warn that this tactic could pose a serious threat if it evolves into a form of terrorism.
These observations come from Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Andy Lim, a researcher at the same institution. In an urgent Q&A report released on July 2, they addressed the implications of North Korea’s latest provocations.
The report challenges claims made by some experts, including Robert Carlin of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and Siegfried Hecker, professor emeritus at Stanford University, who suggest that Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war, much like his grandfather.
“While this hypothesis has garnered attention, it doesn’t accurately reflect the current situation,” Cha and Lim argue. They point out that if Kim were truly preparing for war, he wouldn’t be selling all his ammunition to Russia, as recent intelligence suggests.
The experts also note that North Korea’s severing of ties with South Korea contradicts their historical pattern of deceptive tactics preceding conflict. “If war were imminent, North Korea would likely feign peace negotiations to mislead their adversaries, as they did after the Korean War,” the report states.
This file photo, provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on June 9, 2024, shows a trash-carrying balloon sent by North Korea found in the Han River in Seoul. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
Instead, the researchers posit that the feces-filled balloons are more likely a preemptive response to South Korea’s new unification policy.
This policy, which abandons previous approaches in favor of one based on values of freedom and human rights, appeals directly to the North Korean people’s aspirations for liberty rather than engaging in a system-to-system competition.
“Messages of freedom from hunger, fear, and the right to education resonate powerfully with North Koreans,” the report suggests. “These ideas could potentially be more explosive than joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises or strategic nuclear drills.”
The experts believe that Kim Jong-un is attempting to erase the concept of unification from his people’s minds by cutting all ties with South Korea.
They also interpret the shift from propaganda leaflets to excrement as an acknowledgment by the North Korean regime of the bankruptcy of their ideology.
However, Cha and Lim caution against dismissing these tactics as merely ridiculous. “While the excrement-filled balloons reflect the regime’s vulnerability, they shouldn’t be taken lightly,” they warn.
“This is still a clear form of ‘soft terrorism.’ If these balloons were to contain an unidentified white powder, it could cause panic among South Korean citizens and negatively impact the economy.”
M. H. Lee (mhlee@koreabizwire.com)
