In 2006, renowned British demographer David Coleman made a stark prediction at a UN population forum: South Korea could become the first nation to face population extinction. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
OXFORD, Jan. 2 (Korea Bizwire) — In 2006, renowned British demographer David Coleman, now 78 and an emeritus professor at Oxford University, made a stark prediction at a UN population forum: South Korea could become the first nation to face population extinction.
Meeting at his Oxford home on December 28, Coleman reflected on his earlier warning, emphasizing that it came with a crucial caveat – “if current trends continue.” He stressed that “if you don’t like the mathematical projections, the key is to work to reverse these trends.”
“South Korea stands at the frontier of an unprecedented human experiment,” Coleman said, adding that “if Korea can solve or even mitigate its population problems, it will become a model for the world.”
The discussion was arranged by professor Lee Kang-Ho of KAIST’s Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy to explore Korea’s demographic challenges and their global implications as the new year approaches. The two population experts spent three hours exchanging views at Coleman’s residence.
Coleman previously served as a professor at Oxford’s St. John’s College and as a special advisor to the UK Home Office and Environment Ministry, while Lee held positions as the Director General of Population and Child Policy and Director General of Health Industry Policy at South Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare.
Coleman’s warning from 19 years ago appears increasingly prescient. The total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime – has plummeted from 1.13 in 2006 to 0.72 in 2023. While projections suggest a slight rebound to 0.74 in 2024, this would still leave South Korea with the world’s lowest fertility rate.
As South Korea grapples with one of the world’s lowest birth rates, a new study suggests that rising income inequality may be a significant contributing factor. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
The nation’s aging trajectory is also the world’s fastest. Just seven years after becoming an “aged society” with 14% of its population over 65, South Korea has now entered “super-aged” status, with that figure reaching 20%.
Despite the government pouring 280 trillion won into various birth rate policies between 2006 and 2021, Coleman argued that throwing money at the problem isn’t the solution.
He pointed to France, where fertility rates hover around 1.8, as an example of the importance of policy consistency. “Regardless of government changes, policies supporting working women to have children and mothers to maintain careers have remained unchanged,” he explained.
Lee agreed on the need for sustained effort, noting recent positive shifts in attitudes toward childbirth and marriage. “This is a crucial moment for turning the tide,” he said.
Both professors emphasized the necessity of institutional support for families and gender equality, alongside broader social and cultural changes. Coleman particularly stressed the importance of making marriage or partnership more attractive, suggesting that Korea needs to reduce its intense work culture and educational pressure to ease family stress.
“You need to be less Korean,” he remarked, advocating for reduced workplace pressure and a more relaxed approach to education.
M. H. Lee (mhlee@koreabizwire.com)
