More than 10 percent of the world’s farmland could disappear if global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new study. (Image courtesy of KAIST)
DAEJEON, April 3 (Korea Bizwire) — More than 10 percent of the world’s farmland could disappear if global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new study by South Korean and Chinese researchers, raising urgent concerns about future food security under current climate goals.
The joint research, led by Professor Hae-Won Jeon of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) and Professor Feichao Gao of Beijing Normal University, analyzed the global impact of the 1.5°C warming threshold targeted by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Their findings were published in Nature Climate Change on March 24.
Using high-resolution modeling of land-use changes in 5-square-kilometer grids, the team predicts that by 2100, global farmland area could shrink by 12.8 percent, with developing nations bearing the brunt of the loss. South America alone could see a 24 percent reduction, and 81 percent of global farmland loss is projected to occur in developing regions.
The decline is largely attributed to the expansion of forests for carbon sequestration, a key strategy in reducing greenhouse gases. As a result, more than half of the world’s moderately cultivated farmland is expected to be converted into medium- to high-density forest.
More than 10 percent of the world’s farmland could disappear if global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius (Image courtesy of Pixabay/CCL)
This shift could have profound implications for global food trade. Major agricultural exporters like the United States, Brazil, and Argentina may see their export capacities fall by 10, 25, and 4 percent, respectively—leading to an estimated 12.6 percent global reduction in food export capacity.
The study builds on the team’s earlier work published in Science in 2021, which warned that under current climate pledges, there is only an 11 percent chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C.
“Carbon neutrality strategies must be developed with a broader lens of sustainability,” Professor Jeon said. “If we focus solely on emissions reduction without considering the ecological and food security trade-offs, we risk triggering unintended consequences.”
He further cautioned that developing nations may face a double burden: losing farmland while becoming more dependent on food imports. “International cooperation is essential to ensure that climate action and food security progress hand in hand,” he added.
As 2026 approaches, the findings are expected to influence global climate policy discussions and calls for more nuanced strategies in balancing environmental goals with agricultural resilience.
Kevin Lee (kevinlee@koreabizwire.com)
