Landslide Risk Area Analysis Results. (Image courtesy of the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources)
DAEJEON, South Korea, April 11 (Korea Bizwire) — South Korean researchers have developed a breakthrough technology capable of predicting landslide and debris flow risks within two and a half hours following extreme rainfall—offering critical lead time for evacuations, particularly in wildfire-damaged mountain regions.
The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) announced Thursday that its new physics-based model, grounded in hyper-local weather data, allows for fast and accurate forecasting of landslides and debris flows, especially in areas where vegetation and soil stability have been compromised by wildfires.
Wildfires weaken root structures, reducing the soil’s cohesion and increasing vulnerability to landslides—particularly when followed by torrential rain. In mountainous countries like South Korea, where over 64 percent of land is forested, the risk is especially acute as climate change accelerates.
According to a 2023 study by Dr. Mohamed Omrani published in Nature, a 1°C rise in global temperature leads to a 15 percent increase in precipitation across high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This significantly raises the likelihood of natural disasters such as landslides, floods, and soil erosion.
While landslide forecasting efforts have existed, many lacked real-time weather inputs or struggled to incorporate localized rainfall dynamics. The KIGAM team addressed this gap by integrating Korea Meteorological Administration’s high-resolution Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) with a multi-dimensional, physics-based modeling system.
The model proved its effectiveness when tested on actual landslides from 2023 in Yecheon and near Mount Toam in Gyeongju, showing over 85 percent accuracy when compared to satellite imagery and aerial photographs.
For debris flows, the team developed a separate two-dimensional model that incorporates soil characteristics, vegetation, and rock mobility to delineate high-risk areas with over 90 percent accuracy.
“These new technologies are currently being applied to assess post-fire landslide and debris flow risks across heavily affected regions in Yeongnam,” said Kim Min-seok, head of KIGAM’s Landslide Research Center. “We aim to provide precise, actionable forecasting to help prevent secondary disasters.”
As climate volatility intensifies, the institute plans to expand the model’s deployment nationwide by 2026, in collaboration with local governments and disaster response agencies.
Kevin Lee (kevinlee@koreabizwire.com)
