South Korea’s birthrate and total fertility rate experienced a rare uptick in 2024. (Image courtesy of Yonhap)
SEOUL, Feb. 27 (Korea Bizwire) — South Korea’s birthrate and total fertility rate experienced a rare uptick in 2024, driven by an increase in the population of women in their early 30s. However, experts warn that this trend may be short-lived as broader demographic declines continue.
According to the latest government data, approximately 238,000 babies were born in 2024, marking an increase of 8,000 from the previous year. The total fertility rate—the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime—rose slightly to 0.75, up from 0.72 in 2023. This marks the first increase in nine years.
Demographic Factors Drive Birthrate Rebound
A key driver of this temporary rise is the so-called “second baby boom” generation, born between 1991 and 1995, now entering their prime childbearing years. This cohort, significantly larger than younger generations, has contributed to a rise in births among women in their late 20s and early 30s.
Data shows that women in their early 30s had the highest birthrate, at 70.4 births per 1,000 women, an increase of 3.7 from the previous year.
Birthrates also rose among women in their late 30s, while declining for those in their late 20s and early 40s. Notably, the proportion of births among mothers aged 35 and older fell for the first time since 1987, reflecting a demographic shift favoring younger mothers.
Despite the modest rebound, projections suggest that the effect will be short-lived. The population born after 1996 is significantly smaller, meaning that as this cohort ages, the birthrate is likely to decline again.
Park Hyun-jung, head of the Population Trends Division at Statistics Korea, noted that the current 20-something generation is smaller than the 30-something group, making further declines in childbirth numbers inevitable.
Marriage Boom Contributes to Higher Births
Another contributing factor to the birthrate increase was a significant rise in marriages. The number of marriages in 2024 surged to 222,000, a 14.9% increase from 2023—the highest growth rate recorded since marriage data tracking began in 1970. Many couples who had postponed weddings due to the COVID-19 pandemic finally tied the knot, leading to a surge in newlyweds.
Since births typically follow marriage by one to two years, experts predict that this effect will extend into 2025. However, changing social norms mean that some of these births may have already been reflected in 2024’s statistics, as more couples now delay official marriage registration until after having children.
“The increase in postponed marriages has contributed to higher birth numbers,” said Park. “Additionally, a more positive perception of childbirth may have played a role in this trend.”
The proportion of children born within two years of marriage rose to 35.0%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, while the percentage born two to five years after marriage declined slightly to 38.2%.
Firstborns Dominate as Overall Births Remain Low
Despite the temporary rebound, South Korea’s overall fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world. Firstborns accounted for 61.3% of all births, the highest proportion on record, while births of third children or beyond continued to decline, reaching their lowest level since 1991.
Seoul remained at the bottom of the fertility rankings, recording a total fertility rate of just 0.58, the lowest in the country. In contrast, Sejong and South Jeolla Province led with a fertility rate of 1.03, followed by North Gyeongsang (0.90) and Gangwon (0.89).
While policymakers may find optimism in 2024’s fertility increase, experts caution that unless broader structural issues—such as high living costs and work-life balance challenges—are addressed, the decline will likely resume in the coming years, making 2025 a pivotal year for demographic trends in South Korea.
Lina Jang (linajang@koreabizwire.com)
