Students arrive at an elementary school in Seoul (Yonhap)
SEJONG, Oct. 24 (Korea Bizwire) – According to a new report released by the National Assembly’s Budget and Policy Office, South Korea’s youth population is facing a significant decline, with an estimated 50 percent reduction by the year 2040 if the current low fertility rate persists.
The report titled “Estimation of Total Population Reflecting Recent Low Fertility Trends” projects this scenario by assuming a total fertility rate of 0.7 children in 2024, a figure forecasted by Statistics Korea as the lowest possible rate.
In 2020, South Korea’s total population stood at 51.84 million. However, by 2040, the total population is expected to decrease to 49.16 million, representing a decline of 2.68 million people, equivalent to a 5.17 percent reduction.
Notably, the decline is most pronounced among the youth population, particularly those under the age of 15. The number of children aged 0 to 14 is projected to plummet by 49.6 percent, dropping from 6.32 million in 2020 to 3.18 million in 2040.
Even more striking, the number of infants and toddlers aged 0-6 in 2040 is expected to fall to 1.3 million, less than half of the 2.63 million reported in 2020. These estimates differ significantly from those of Statistics Korea, with a gap of 1.25 million and 860,000, respectively.
The report’s assumption of a “no fertility increase” is rooted in the fact that Statistics Korea’s projected timeline for the “total fertility trough” has consistently been postponed due to persistently low fertility rates. In previous estimates, Statistics Korea anticipated a dip in the total fertility rate, followed by a rebound. However, this anticipated increase did not materialize.
For example, in 2016, the agency expected a total fertility rate of 1.18, followed by an increase the next year, but fertility rates continued to decline. Similarly, in 2019, a low of 0.86 in 2021 was projected, with expectations of an upturn, yet the decline persisted in 2022.
The Office for National Statistics’ lowest projected total fertility rate in 2021 is for 2024, with a rate of 0.7.
The report underlines the concern that, given recent social conditions, a near-term rebound in the total fertility rate appears unlikely. It emphasizes the urgency of formulating a total population estimate that accounts for a continued decline in fertility rates in the short term.
M. H. Lee (mhlee@koreabizwire.com)
